Thank you for your message. There is of course exponential growth of battery storage, EV (future battery storage), and digitisation. All of which will make this possible. So challenging, but feasible is I think fair. And agree we need to work hard to cross all these barriers, as we have been doing for 20 years.
Two aspects you don't mention above but might be interesting to explore in subsequent blogs?
Where is the exponential growth of DSR (to accompany the other exp growth curves)? Increasing intermittent renewables, and increasing electrification of heat and transport (and volatility of demand) increase the need for system flexibility (storage - but crucially - demand side response - particularly from EVs, Heat pumps, EVs). Without massive increase in flex, system costs will start increasing rapidly (e.g. see A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids, Philip J. Heptonstall and Robert J. K. Gross, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00695-4, Nature Energy | VOL 6 | January 2021 | 72–83 | ).
Secondly - electricity networks (transmission and distribution) and system operators will struggle/are struggling with these growth rates - and investing in the required network capacity ahead of need. This will hold back renewable generation and battery growth. It will get worse if companies start steering consumer devices (to provide the DSR to keep broader system costs low) - they will be removing diversity of loads from the system - specifically they will be eliminating ADMD (after diversity maximum demand) that LV network operators use to calculate how much load their LV networks can support.
There is a pretty challenging balancing act coming up where we need consumer (automated) DSR, but simultaneously need networks to provide signals to avoid DSR causing/exacerbating network problems as they respond to wholesale prices (and herd around low price periods). To me this says we need more dynamic network signals, but talking with DSOs and TSOs across Europe (including the UK), they are nowhere near reaching the same conclusions...
Without creative thinking and real innovation in transmission and distribution grids across the US, Europe, etc., how will all this renewable energy get from where it's produced to where its needed every moment of every day? We don't need more of the old and ugly massive towers to hang wires - we need a new technology to carry all the wonderful renewable energy around the world
Interesting article, but could you elaborate on this conclusion? "Four technologies (solar, wind, electric vehicles, and heat pumps), in four markets (China, the United States, the European Union, and India), over the next four years, set the direction." To me, by far the most important technology is battery technology. Why don't batteries make your list?
Thank you for your message. There is of course exponential growth of battery storage, EV (future battery storage), and digitisation. All of which will make this possible. So challenging, but feasible is I think fair. And agree we need to work hard to cross all these barriers, as we have been doing for 20 years.
Great article.
Two aspects you don't mention above but might be interesting to explore in subsequent blogs?
Where is the exponential growth of DSR (to accompany the other exp growth curves)? Increasing intermittent renewables, and increasing electrification of heat and transport (and volatility of demand) increase the need for system flexibility (storage - but crucially - demand side response - particularly from EVs, Heat pumps, EVs). Without massive increase in flex, system costs will start increasing rapidly (e.g. see A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids, Philip J. Heptonstall and Robert J. K. Gross, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00695-4, Nature Energy | VOL 6 | January 2021 | 72–83 | ).
Secondly - electricity networks (transmission and distribution) and system operators will struggle/are struggling with these growth rates - and investing in the required network capacity ahead of need. This will hold back renewable generation and battery growth. It will get worse if companies start steering consumer devices (to provide the DSR to keep broader system costs low) - they will be removing diversity of loads from the system - specifically they will be eliminating ADMD (after diversity maximum demand) that LV network operators use to calculate how much load their LV networks can support.
There is a pretty challenging balancing act coming up where we need consumer (automated) DSR, but simultaneously need networks to provide signals to avoid DSR causing/exacerbating network problems as they respond to wholesale prices (and herd around low price periods). To me this says we need more dynamic network signals, but talking with DSOs and TSOs across Europe (including the UK), they are nowhere near reaching the same conclusions...
Oh this is easily one of the most inspiring posts I’ve read in a long time! You guys have your finger on the pulse for sure.
Without creative thinking and real innovation in transmission and distribution grids across the US, Europe, etc., how will all this renewable energy get from where it's produced to where its needed every moment of every day? We don't need more of the old and ugly massive towers to hang wires - we need a new technology to carry all the wonderful renewable energy around the world
Interesting article, but could you elaborate on this conclusion? "Four technologies (solar, wind, electric vehicles, and heat pumps), in four markets (China, the United States, the European Union, and India), over the next four years, set the direction." To me, by far the most important technology is battery technology. Why don't batteries make your list?