Sorry. But we do not have the probable reserves to complete even the first generation of battery build out for transportation AND grid storage. before we even consider the feasibility of 100% perfect recycling. See mining expert Simon Michaux' reports.
The IEA projects that lithium demand will grow exponentially through 2040, with 2040 demand at over 1300 KT/yr.
Your figures are 300-600 kt/yr peaking 2035-2045.
You appear to make a stupendous error by accelerating the recycling time by decades. How can lithium be recycled before it has reached the end of its life? Peak production will be far beyond 2040. Add 15-20 years. 2070-2080 for the peak intial recycling phase?
You entirely ignore the problem of lithium mining capacity, which lags far behind demand in the IEA chart. Mines don’t produce when your computer model demands material, they often take a decade to develop.
Please explain how petroleum extraction requires more earth-moving than lithium mining? I suspect that you include coal mining in your petroleum data.
Here are excerpts from the SubStack of a data expert, Hana Ritchie, who is the head data research at OurWorldInData and a fellow at Oxford:
“Today, less than 1% of lithium is recycled. Most of the projections we looked at assume that it stays low. The IEA, for example, assumes that by 2040 just 6% is recycled.
One problem is that recycling lithium is more expensive than mining new stuff. It might not stay this way. This used to be the case with lead-acid batteries: they were rarely recycled but after these markets scaled, almost all of them are today.
A better option is to not only recycle batteries – by grinding them up and extracting the minerals – but by repurposing them at the end of their life. This could be less expensive, but we’ve still to see it working at a commercial scale.
Even if we were to quickly increase recycling or repurposing rates, the demand for new lithium might not change much. At least, not very soon. There just won’t be very much material to recycle. Most EVs are still going to be on their first life by 2040 or 2050. Only later, when many are preparing for their second or third round, that recycling could make a dent in global lithium demand.
We currently produce around 100,000 tonnes each year. By 2030, the IEA projects that we’ll need 2.5 to 5 times as much: 240,000 to 450,000 tonnes.
If you want to do some quick maths on this, let’s assume an EV needs 8 kilograms of lithium: that tonnage would give us 30 to 60 million new EVs per year.
The world doesn’t currently have the production capacity in mining operations to scale to this level. And, the problem is that the minimum time to build lithium mines is four to five years. They can be even longer – especially the lithium extracted from brine because it takes a long time to pump the saltwater out, before waiting for it to evaporate.”
Sorry. But we do not have the probable reserves to complete even the first generation of battery build out for transportation AND grid storage. before we even consider the feasibility of 100% perfect recycling. See mining expert Simon Michaux' reports.
https://youtu.be/MBVmnKuBocc?si=qawMjg2PHErNaGVL
There are so many problems with this report!
I’m just a lowly, grassroots advocate for a more pragmatic climate advocacy group, and I can see the problems with this work.
The scale and the timeline assumptions are wildly optimistic.
Here is the 2024 lithium report from the IEA: https://www.iea.org/reports/lithium
The IEA projects that lithium demand will grow exponentially through 2040, with 2040 demand at over 1300 KT/yr.
Your figures are 300-600 kt/yr peaking 2035-2045.
You appear to make a stupendous error by accelerating the recycling time by decades. How can lithium be recycled before it has reached the end of its life? Peak production will be far beyond 2040. Add 15-20 years. 2070-2080 for the peak intial recycling phase?
You entirely ignore the problem of lithium mining capacity, which lags far behind demand in the IEA chart. Mines don’t produce when your computer model demands material, they often take a decade to develop.
Please explain how petroleum extraction requires more earth-moving than lithium mining? I suspect that you include coal mining in your petroleum data.
Here are excerpts from the SubStack of a data expert, Hana Ritchie, who is the head data research at OurWorldInData and a fellow at Oxford:
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web
“Today, less than 1% of lithium is recycled. Most of the projections we looked at assume that it stays low. The IEA, for example, assumes that by 2040 just 6% is recycled.
One problem is that recycling lithium is more expensive than mining new stuff. It might not stay this way. This used to be the case with lead-acid batteries: they were rarely recycled but after these markets scaled, almost all of them are today.
A better option is to not only recycle batteries – by grinding them up and extracting the minerals – but by repurposing them at the end of their life. This could be less expensive, but we’ve still to see it working at a commercial scale.
Even if we were to quickly increase recycling or repurposing rates, the demand for new lithium might not change much. At least, not very soon. There just won’t be very much material to recycle. Most EVs are still going to be on their first life by 2040 or 2050. Only later, when many are preparing for their second or third round, that recycling could make a dent in global lithium demand.
We currently produce around 100,000 tonnes each year. By 2030, the IEA projects that we’ll need 2.5 to 5 times as much: 240,000 to 450,000 tonnes.
If you want to do some quick maths on this, let’s assume an EV needs 8 kilograms of lithium: that tonnage would give us 30 to 60 million new EVs per year.
The world doesn’t currently have the production capacity in mining operations to scale to this level. And, the problem is that the minimum time to build lithium mines is four to five years. They can be even longer – especially the lithium extracted from brine because it takes a long time to pump the saltwater out, before waiting for it to evaporate.”